IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.8	#76
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.8	#172
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.2	#70

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.6	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.4%	1.4%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	3.1%	3.2%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.9%	33.5%	17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	7.3%	7.6%	1.4%
Average Seed	10.9	10.9	12.1

.500 or above	89.4%	90.2%	68.9%
.500 or above in Conference	92.6%	92.9%	84.2%
Conference Champion	37.7%	38.2%	24.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.3%	1.3%

First Four	2.8%	2.9%	0.5%
First Round	31.6%	32.1%	17.7%
Second Round	10.6%	10.8%	4.7%
Sweet Sixteen	3.7%	3.8%	1.7%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.2%	0.3%
Final Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 2	3 - 4
Quad 3	7 - 3	9 - 7
Quad 4	8 - 1	17 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	310	Tennessee Tech	W	81-62	96%
Nov 09, 2019	211	Austin Peay	W	82-69	89%
Nov 15, 2019	274	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	89-79	82%
Nov 22, 2019	108	Bowling Green	W	78-75	61%
Nov 29, 2019	6	Louisville	L	66-78	14%
Dec 03, 2019	103	@ Wright St.	L	69-70	49%
Dec 07, 2019	57	Arkansas	W	77-76	52%
Dec 21, 2019	86	@ Rhode Island	L	71-73	42%
Dec 28, 2019	80	Belmont	W	80-77	61%
Jan 02, 2020	152	North Texas	W	72-63	79%
Jan 04, 2020	229	Rice	W	84-70	87%
Jan 09, 2020	140	@ UAB	W	71-68	59%
Jan 11, 2020	174	@ Middle Tennessee	W	74-69	66%
Jan 16, 2020	139	Old Dominion	W	69-60	77%
Jan 18, 2020	276	Charlotte	W	75-59	91%
Jan 22, 2020	188	@ Marshall	W	84-78	69%
Jan 25, 2020	188	Marshall	W	87-75	83%
Jan 30, 2020	163	@ Florida Atlantic	W	73-69	63%
Feb 01, 2020	185	@ Florida International	W	88-82	68%
Feb 06, 2020	116	Louisiana Tech	W	73-67	69%
Feb 08, 2020	238	Southern Miss	W	76-62	88%
Feb 13, 2020	169	@ UTEP	W	72-68	63%
Feb 15, 2020	121	@ Texas San Antonio	W	79-78	53%
Projected Record						16 - 7	10 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st										0.1	1.7	7.9	12.3	10.9	4.8		37.7	1st
2nd									0.0	1.3	6.2	7.9	3.0	0.3			18.6	2nd
3rd									0.5	4.3	5.9	1.4	0.1				12.1	3rd
4th								0.1	2.1	5.1	1.7	0.1					9.1	4th
5th								0.5	3.5	2.0	0.1						6.1	5th
6th							0.0	2.0	2.5	0.3							4.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.2	0.6	0.0							3.4	7th
8th						0.1	1.4	1.1	0.0								2.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	1.4	0.3									2.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.0									1.5	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	0.6	0.1										0.9	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1											0.6	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0											0.3	13th
14th		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.1	14th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	2.1	3.9	6.2	9.3	13.0	15.5	17.3	15.4	11.2	4.8			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	4.8		4.8
13-1	97.6%	10.9		9.2	1.6	0.0
12-2	79.7%	12.3		7.7	4.1	0.5	0.0
11-3	46.0%	7.9		2.3	3.7	1.6	0.3	0.0
10-4	11.1%	1.7		0.2	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
9-5	0.6%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	37.7%	37.7		24.2	9.9	2.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	4.8%		84.6%	62.3%	22.3%	6.9		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.7		59.1%
13-1	11.2%		68.9%	50.2%	18.7%	9.6		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.9	1.5	0.4	0.0			3.5		37.5%
12-2	15.4%		50.9%	41.6%	9.3%	11.3					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	2.1	3.0	1.0	0.1	0.0		7.6		15.9%
11-3	17.3%		36.4%	33.0%	3.4%	12.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	2.8	1.7	0.5	0.0		11.0		5.1%
10-4	15.5%		23.5%	22.9%	0.6%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.4	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	11.9		0.8%
9-5	13.0%		16.1%	15.9%	0.2%	13.1												0.0	0.5	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0	10.9		0.2%
8-6	9.3%		9.2%	9.2%	0.0%	13.5												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.4		0.0%
7-7	6.2%		5.0%	5.0%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.9
6-8	3.9%		3.0%	3.0%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8
5-9	2.1%		0.8%	0.8%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1
4-10	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		0.9
3-11	0.3%																							0.3
2-12	0.1%																							0.1
1-13	0.0%																							0.0
0-14

Total	100%		32.9%	27.6%	5.3%	10.9		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.1	1.7	2.2	5.8	9.4	5.8	2.2	0.5	0.0	67.1		7.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	2.6	22.6	27.2	29.3	14.2	6.3	0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.1			8.1	81.1	8.1	2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	97.4%	3.9	5.1		35.9	41.0	2.6	5.1	2.6	2.6		2.6